An easier solution, I realize now, might be accelerometers on one’s fingertips. From the acceleration information they could derive which way is up – it’s the direction in which a finger never gets suddenly stopped – and if they were sensitive enough the software could determine which finger was lowest at all times, and thereby deduce which finger the latest press had come from.
I should have specified: If I could do this, I would use it to add velocity sensitivity to my monome grids.
Camera latency does seem like it would matter. The way the Axon guitar-to-midi converter got around the latency problem (it needed to know what frequency a waveform corresponds to before that waveform had even completed a fully cycle, let alone repeated itself) was through AI. I can imagine something similar might work for cameras.